Radiance is out, and most cards are coming down
Radiance is out today. Most of the cards I cover here will come down from their presale prices. That is not a guess. It is what happened last set.
Look at the Crystal Rose Ahri, Inquisitive SP from Vendetta. Its first eBay sale was $698 on July 22. Today it is $62 on TCGplayer. That is the normal path for a new set.
I think two cards skip that drop. One is Riven, The Exile (Overnumbered). The other is her gear card, Blade of the Exile. You need three copies of that one just to play the deck.
Riven, The Exile (Overnumbered): the eBay sales
Riven 173 is already selling for around $363 on eBay. On October 20 I saw one sale at $300 and one at $325. On October 19 I saw $390 and $400. There was a $155 sale on October 17, but that was a Chinese copy, so I ignore it. That is at least four US sales since prerelease.
Riven looks like one of the best legends in the set. I have seen many creators put her at A or S tier. A 72-person event was won by a Riven deck running the Heron combo. Cards in the meta tend to hold their value.
At upload, TCGplayer's presale market price on Riven 173 was $518, with listings from $460. That is above the eBay sales I show in the video.
What Akali and Kennen did after Vendetta
So what does a good Overnumbered legend do after release? Vendetta gives me a clean example. Akali, Rogue Assassin (Overnumbered) sold near $300 on release week. It climbed to $590 at the peak. Today its market price is about $457. That is still about 46% above where it started.
Now compare that to the rest of Vendetta. About 18 of the 31 Overnumbers are below their release-week price. Kennen, Heart of the Tempest (Overnumbered) was the most expensive one at release at $278. He is now at $211. Most Overnumbers come down. The top legend held.
One note. The Riven numbers are from eBay. The Akali numbers are from TCGplayer. TCGplayer sellers cannot ship until the set releases, so there is no TCGplayer sales data for Radiance yet. I am comparing the shape, not the exact dollars.
My call on Riven: I think she may see a small dip as supply opens up. I have seen Facebook posts of stores selling Radiance booster boxes for $109.99. MSRP is $119.99. Cheaper boxes mean more product gets opened. Still, I think Riven holds better than anything else in the set.
Riven signature and the other Overnumbers
I saw one clean sale of the Riven, The Exile (Signature) at $1,700. There was also a $1,675 listing that took a best offer, so the real price was lower. I have not confirmed that one yet.
I think $1,700 is a steal. Look at the Akali, Rogue Assassin (Signature) from Vendetta. Its lowest TCGplayer listing is $2,300. The market price is about $3,200. A PSA 10 copy runs about $4,800. If you bought the Riven Signature at $1,700, I think you did well.
The rest of the Overnumbers look weaker to me. Here is what I saw and what I expect:
- Seraphine, Starry-Eyed Songstress (Overnumbered) had two sales at $250. I do not think she is a good legend this set. I would not be surprised to see her at $100 to $150.
- Ziggs, Hexplosives Expert (Overnumbered) sold for $170, $176 and $202. One $72 sale was a Chinese copy, so skip it. I think Ziggs is a fun local deck, not a top deck. He could be a sub-$100 legend.
- Orianna, Lady of Clockwork (Overnumbered) sold around $130, with a $145 listing that took an offer. Same story as Ziggs.
- Yone, Blademaster (Heartsteel Overnumbered) had only two sales. One was $125, and one took an offer on a $100 to $110 listing. I think he lands around $75.
- Sett, Kingpin (Heartsteel Overnumbered) had one sale at $150. I expect it to drop once supply hits.
- Mordekaiser, Iron Revenant (Overnumbered) went $250, $240, then $175. He is great in limited, but this game has no limited format outside prereleases.
- Ezreal, Dashing (Heartsteel Overnumbered) sold for $120. This one could fall to $50 or $60. If you see him at $50, pick him up.
My rule of thumb for collectors: if you see an Overnumbered legend under $50, buy it. And do not buy any of these on Friday. Wait until Sunday or Monday. Stores race each other to the bottom over opening weekend, so prices drop fast.
Ahri is the one exception to all of this. It does not matter if her deck is good. She has been one of the most expensive cards in the game since set one.
Packed Amphitheater and the K/DA SPs
A vendor at NTX cracked a prerelease kit, pulled a Packed Amphitheater (Ultimate), and sold it to another vendor for $2,000. That was a great sale for them. On eBay I see $1,350 on the high end, then $1,100, then $1,000, and one offer that closed below $1,000. I am not a fan of this Ultimate Rare. Baron Nashor was a real chase. I think Amphitheater keeps falling, and I do not know where the floor is.
The SPs are coming down too. From my Terapeak research:
- The Ahri, Confident K/DA SP sold about 24 times with a middle price near $85. The first sale on prerelease day hit $210, then it settled fast. That is twice the volume of any other SP. Ahri is the chase art of this game.
- The Akali, Brash K/DA SP sold 11 times with a middle price near $71. The lowest was $60. I think this becomes a $40 to $50 card, maybe $35.
- The Evelynn, In Control K/DA SP sold about 8 times with a middle price of $68. I see it dropping through $39, $30 and $25. I think it ends up near $15, like the Lux, Crownguard Crystal Rose SP did.
- The Kai'Sa, Rebel K/DA SP sold 11 times with a middle price of about $52. One sale hit $110, but I also saw $60 and a few accepted offers.
- The Seraphine, Not Alone K/DA SP sold 12 times with a middle price near $68. One offer closed under $42. I think she becomes a sub-$30 card.
I collect these myself. I own several Ahri, Kai'Sa and Lux SPs, and I plan to hold a set of each. I would not be surprised to see 50% drops across these cards, except Riven.
Blade of the Exile: the second Riven card
The second Riven card is not a showcase. It is her signature gear, Blade of the Exile. Its TCGplayer market price is $40 to $50, and the most recent sale was $37.99. I saw 22 copies sold at $49. Call it $50. You need three for the Riven deck, so that is $150 just for the Blades.
The deck is not cheap. It also runs three Astral Heron, which I think are about $78 each. It runs Zhonya's Hourglass, a rare near $18. And it runs Defy, a common that costs about a dollar.
I do think Blade of the Exile comes down some. Heron is expensive because any deck in that domain can run it. The Blade only goes in Riven decks. I think it settles at $20 to $30. If you have copies and will not play Riven, today is the day to sell. You may have already missed the window at prerelease.
Most of Radiance is coming down. Riven is the exception, with both her Overnumbered card and her gear.