Launch week is never the cheapest
One copy of every Origins card is worth $19,101. That includes the signatures. It is the most valuable set in Riftbound. Spiritforged is second at $15,012.
Every set has done the same thing after launch. Origins dropped 12% in its first two weeks. Unleashed dropped 20%. Spiritforged fell 34% before it found the bottom. Radiance comes out on October 23. So before you spend a dollar on it, here is every set ranked.
I track 1,194 cards across four sets. That is base cards, alt arts, overnumbers and signatures. I use the TCGplayer Near Mint market price every week since launch. Pre-order prices do not count. There is no sealed product and no promos.
4th place, C tier: Unleashed
One full set of Unleashed is $12,771. That is the lowest of the four. But C does not mean bad. It launched at $9,964. It hit bottom at $8,013 the week of June 29. Since launch it is up 28%, the second best return of any set.
The Poros carried it. The six Poro overnumbers were worth $396 together at launch. Today they are $1,303. Lonely Poro alone went from $89 to $365. Those six cards are about a third of the whole set's gain.
Diana, Scorn of the Moon Signature more than doubled, from $742 to $1,530. The Baron Nashor Ultimate went from $1,439 to $1,828. Regular Unleashed cards are only down 15%, the smallest drop of any set. If you are building with Unleashed, wait for the meta to settle. Then buy singles.
3rd place, B tier: Vendetta
Vendetta is the youngest set. It launched at $13,729, and today it is $14,103. That is up 3% in 10 weeks. One card is doing all the work. Akali, Rogue Assassin Signature went from $2,627 to $3,230. That is a $602 gain. The whole set is only up $374. So everything else in Vendetta together is down $228.
The Kennen side of the set took a hit. Riot banned Stacked Deck on September 18. It also called out the Kennen Legend and Lightning Rush by name. The Kennen, Heart of the Tempest Overnumbered launched at $278. Today it is $211. New players should let the dust settle. See what the top decks play, then buy those singles.
2nd place, A tier: Spiritforged
Spiritforged launched at $16,149, the highest launch of any set. It is the only set worth less today. It is down 7%. It fell 20 weeks in a row, down to $10,582 the week of June 29. That was 34% off launch. Since then, it is up 42%.
The top card is Ahri, Inquisitive Signature. It went from $2,737 to $3,334, up 22%. So why is this a buy? The staples live in the regular cards. Regular Spiritforged cards are down 62%. Spiritforged has some of the best cards in the game, and right now they are on sale.
1st place, S tier: Origins
Origins launched at $13,342. Two weeks later it hit its low at $11,690. Today it is $19,101, up 43%. That is the best return of any set. Two cards drove 71% of the gain. Ahri, Nine-Tailed Fox Signature went from $1,269 to $3,711. Kai'Sa, Daughter of the Void Signature went from $1,465 to $3,114.
That is also the risk. If Ahri cools off, so does Origins. But that is not why I say buy. You buy Origins because that is where the staples live. Every deck in the game needs them. Regular Origins cards are down 52% from launch.
The number that changes how you buy
In every set, signatures and overnumbers are 95% to 99% of the total value. Now take them out. Keep only the base cards and alt arts, the cards you play with. Origins still leads at about $770. Unleashed jumps to second at about $560. Spiritforged drops to third at about $360. All of Vendetta is about $180.
That is why opening packs is a gamble. Almost all the value is in a few cards you probably will not pull. The cards you do pull get cheaper. If you want the cards, buy singles.
Here is my plan. Buy Origins and Spiritforged staples now. Wait on Unleashed and Vendetta until we see the Radiance meta. Do not buy Radiance on day one, and do not buy anything during pre-release. Before every set, I also go through every Epic and pick up any that are under $5. That is my rule of thumb.